State-Level Employment Situation: May 2025

Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 37 states in May compared to the previous month, while it decreased in 10 states and the District of Columbia. The three remaining states, Alaska, Delaware, and New Jersey reported no change. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nationwide total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 139,000 in May following…

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Consumer Confidence Retreats in June

After a strong rebound in May, consumer confidence resumed its downward trend in June. Consumers remain concerned about the economy and labor market amid ongoing uncertainty, especially around tariffs. This month’s decline erased almost half of last month’s sharp gain, suggesting continued volatility in consumer sentiment. The Consumer Confidence Index, reported by the Conference Board,…

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Is U.S. Lumber Self-Reliance Possible?

Lumber cost uncertainty has risen from the start of the year, driven in part by potential higher tariffs, particularly on Canadian softwood lumber. Despite the continued use and threat of tariffs, U.S. sawmill and wood preservation firms have not increased production to a level that replaces imports. In fact, utilization rates continue to fall, meaning…

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Existing Home Sales Edge Higher in May

Existing home sales rose 0.8% in May but remained near historical lows, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Despite the modest increase, this marks the slowest pace for May since 2009. The sluggish sales suggest higher mortgage rates and elevated home prices continue to sideline buyers even with improved inventory conditions. Mortgage rates…

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Single-family Construction Loan Volume Grows

Credit conditions for builders and developers eased in the first quarter of 2025 as the level of outstanding 1-4 family residential construction loans rose for the first time in two years, according to data released by FDIC. While the volume of 1-4 family residential construction loans rose, a drop in other real estate development loans…

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The Fed Pause Continues

Reflecting most forecasters’ expectations for the June FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve continued its post-2024 pause for federal funds rate cuts, retaining a target rate of 4.5% to 4.25%. The pause comes after a 100 basis point series of reductions in late 2024. Despite these cuts, mortgage rates have remained in the high 6% range….

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Sharp Drop in Multifamily Production Brings Overall Housing Starts Down

A sharp decline in multifamily production pushed overall housing starts down in May, while single-family output was essentially flat due to economic and tariff uncertainty along with elevated interest rates. Overall housing starts decreased 9.8% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.26 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Department…

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Builder Sentiment at Third Lowest Reading Since 2012

In a further sign of declining builder sentiment, the use of price incentives increased sharply in June as the housing market continues to soften. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 32 in June, down two points from May, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market…

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